WITS: Playoff Chaos

What I Think, Sports edition: The College Football Playoff hits and near misses

Things got a little easier for the playoff committee's first rankings.  Three Big Five conference undefeateds, Nebraska, West Virginia, and Baylor fell at the hands of conference foes.  And the race for the Group of Five representative in the New Years Six bowls has a leader on the track: the mighty Western Michigan Broncos are last remaining undefeated team outside the Big Five after Boise State's narrow loss to Wyoming. 

The final and deciding points on that one were from a safety on a fumble.  You just never know in college football.

But things could have gone much differently.  Alabama had a bye week and Michigan took control of their rivalry game with the Spartans of Michigan state in the first half, so were never in danger.  Undefeated Clemson of the ACC and Washington of the PAC-12 had tough, close, road victories over ranked, conference opponents.  The top one loss teams, Louisville and Ohio State, also had to make plays late in their respective games to pull out wins.  A little more sprinkling of chaos and there would have been a big two and multitude of everybody elses.

Of course, that could still happen.

Alabama has road contest with a ranked LSU team this weekend.  And a date with a surging Auburn at season's end.

Michigan has its own rivalry challenge with Ohio State, which is still alive in the race for the Big Ten championship, pending an elimination game this Saturday with Nebraska.  A victory over the Buckeyes would propel the Wolverines into a championship game showdown with either Nebraska or Wisconsin.

The Badgers have virtually spent this season as the agents of chaos.  In addition to knocking off Nebraska, they have given Michigan and Ohio State all they could handle.  And a Buckeye victory over the Cornhuskers would give Wisconsin another shot against the winner of the Ohio State-Michigan tilt at season's end.  And they started the year pinning a nonconfersnce loss on LSU, something no SEC school can afford to suffer.

There are other agents of chaos lurking.  Two loss Oklahoma can win the Big XII, burying any hope of that conference to place a team in the playoff.  Washington State, Colorado, or Utah could put a blemish on Washington's record and deny them the Pac-12 title.  Clemson has played close games all season, making virtually every opponent a stumbling block, including potential ACC Coastal champ Virginia Tech and ever improving rival South Carolina.

And there's rarely just one Chaos Weekend.

WITS focus: The College Football Playoff

What I Think: Sports edition

Road to the Fin...Last Four?

Here we are at the midpoint of the college football season.  Depending on their bye week every team has played 6 or 7 games.  So where do we stand on the road to the playoff?

11 undefeated teams:  Two of these are "Group of Five" teams with weak schedules.  Even if they stay unbeaten they have virtually no chance of making the playoff.  Of the nine Power Five conference teams, 4 will lose to a fellow unbeaten in the regular season.  Theoretically five teams can go undefeated and claim Power Five conference championships.  This would be playoff nightmare scenario number 1.

9 one loss teams:  Five of these are Group of Five teams, of which only Houston has any cachet as a national level team.  At least 4 of the current unbeatens will fall into this category.  But there are spoilers out there, teams that can really muddy the waters.

Oklahoma and TCU - Every team in the Big 12 plays every other team.  And these two loss powers can inflict losses on Baylor and West Virginia, leaving the Big 12 with no undefeated team, or even no team with fewer than 2 losses.  Oklahoma State could also enter into this equation.

Florida State - Clemson coach Dabo Sweeney said Clemson has beaten everyone but Clemson.  Not for lack of trying.  Five turnovers against Louisville and four against NC State were offset only by clutch plays, stout defense, and the home field advantage.  But the Seminoles are not coming to Death Valley, and they could easily derail the tigers' unbeaten season if given a chance.

Wisconsin - The Badgers had close losses to Michigan and Ohio State.  But if Ohio State puts a loss on fellow unbeaten Nebraska, Wisconsin could seize the division with a victory of their own against the Cornhuskers, setting up a grudge match with the Wolverines-Buckeyes winner in the Big Ten title game.

Utah and Washington State - The Washington Huskies have the straight line to an undefeated season and PAC 12 championship.  But that line leads through the home field of the Utah Utes, the Apple Cup with the rival Cougars, and a potential rematch with Utah in the championship game.

A few of these occurrences could lead to a fairly straight forward mix of four zero or one loss conference champs for the playoff.  But too many, or too few, could lead to five undefeated conference champions,  a bunch of one loss teams, or even some two loss conference champ.

The College Football Playoff Committee may have some interesting choices ahead.

Keeping my WITS about me

What I Think, Sports edition

A few notes from the first full college football weekend:

 Unless Southern Cal is a really bad team, there's Alabama and then there's everybody else.

The rest of the SEC has a lot to prove, though Texas A&M and Georgia are off to a good start.

Clemson players need to work on situational awareness.  Their mistakes in the last minute should have cost them.

Stupid penalties seem to abound when combining young men, an emotional games, and high (or at least hypes) stakes.

Someone needs to check the uprights in Starkville. Mississippi State and South Alabama hit them 3 times.  They can't be regulation.

The PAC-12 better hope Southern Cal or UCLA don't win the conference. They might get left out of the playoff again.

I am unreasonably optimistic about Furman's season after giving a good game to Michigan State.  But then the Paladins always seem to give FBS teams a better game than teams on their own level.

Just when you think the ACC is taking care of business, Virginia happens.

I wonder which credit card company gets stuck paying up on frequent flyer miles for the Hawaii athletic program.  Some executive probably got a heart attack after the Australia trip.

With no potential for a conference title, does the loss to Texas mean Notre Dame is Notre Done for the year?

Less than three days until the 2016 NFL kick off.